Evaluation of CO2 emissions based on the consumption-based measurement under CO2 reduction scenarios of different reduction levels

This study evaluates the regional and sectoral CO2 emissions estimated by different CO2 emissions accounting methodologies around 2050 under different CO2 reduction scenarios. The production-based measurement of CO2 emissions is based on polluter pays principle, while the consumption-based measurement is based on beneficiary pays principle. In the field of global warming, the widely used methodology for CO2 emissions accounting is the production-based measurement of CO2 emissions generated inside a country. Recently, the consumption-based emissions measurement, which is similar to the concepts of carbon footprint or CO2 visualization, started to be recognized as one of alternative approaches for the substantial reduction of CO2. The international trade accompanied with the CO2 emissions that are defined to be emitted in production and distribution processes outside the country is taken into account for consumption-based CO2 emissions measurements. Most of previous studies only focused on the historical estimations of consumption-based CO2 emissions and there are few analyses on the future consumption-based emissions corresponding to CO2 reduction scenarios. This paper presents the future consumption-based CO2 emissions by region and by sector toward 2050 under severe reduction scenarios of CO2 using GTAP database in the base year and an energy-economic model with multi-regions and multi-sectors. The introductions of CO2 emission reduction policies aimed at the level of 550ppmv CO2 stabilization target and the target of halving emissions by 2050 lead to the international structures of industry where goods with relatively high CO2 intensity consumed in developed regions are produced in developing regions through international trade. More stringent reduction levels of production-based CO2 emission lead to much higher consumption-based CO2 emissions in the OECD region.